DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z TUE 17/12 - 06Z WED 18/12 2002
ISSUED: 16/12 22:27Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA

SYNOPSIS

A HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE UPPER (AND SURFACE) LOW JUST WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. THE AIR-MASS OVER MUCH OF EUROPE IS STABLE AND DOES NOT ALLOW THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. OVER THE WESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA THERE IS ADVECTION OF A WARM UNSTABLE AIR-MASS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION

...WESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA...
SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE PRESENT OVER PORTUGAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST. THE DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AT BEST. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW INSTABILITY STRONGLY LIMITS THE SEVERE THREAT.

#